*2010 Payroll: $72 million (missed playoffs)
*2011 Payroll: $42 million (A.L. Wild Card)
*2012 Payroll: Projected $40-50 million
2012 Free Agents:
*Johnny Damon (DH/OF)
*Casey Kotchman (1B)
*Kyle Farnsworth (CL/RP) (Club Option accepted)
*Juan Cruz (RP)
*Joel Peralta (RP)
*Kelly Shoppach (C) (Club Option declined)
Potential Free Agent Targets:
*Yuneski Betancourt (SS)
Would be an inexpensive upgrade over both Reid Brignac/Sean Rodriguez while the Rays wait for 2009 first round pick Tim Beckham to develop--finished 2011 with 69 RBIs for the Brewers at SS
*Josh Willingham (OF/DH)
If the Rays don't re-sign Johnny Damon and do trade Upton, there would be enough in the bank to make an offer on Willingham for two or three years. He could DH and/or play outfield for Tampa Bay and is one of the best power bats available after Price Fielder and Albert Pujols.
*Jason Kubel (OF/DH)
Has battled injuries on several occaisions throughout his career but when healthy is a legitamate offensive threat. Drove in more than 100 runs in 2009 and would be a great fit with Tampa Bay who could give him full-time DH duties if Damon leaves. Less expensive option than Willingham, but could put up comparable numbers if he stays healthy.
Trade Rumors:
*B.J. Upton (CF)
Could be dealt to free up payroll and make room for Desmond Jennings and other outfield prospects on the horizon. The Rays also drafted CF Mikie Mahtook in the first round of this year's draft, possibly hinting that Upton may not be in Tampa Bay's long-term plans. Upton could bring a bundle of prospect and/or bullpen depth if he were traded, making him the most likely candidate to be moved this offseason with the Rays unlikely to be big bidders in the free agent market.
*James Shields (P)
While Shields has been rumored in trades heading into the offseason, don't expect the Rays to part ways with the right-hander unless they are blown away by an offer. Unless the Rays are able to get the kind of return they got from dealing Matt Garza to the Cubs last offseason, they will likely try to complete for a second straight playoff appearance with Shields near the front of the rotation. The Garza trade brought Tampa Bay pitcher Chris Archer, outfielder Brandon Guyer, catcher Robinson Chirinos and outfielder Sam Fuld--all of whom have become top prospects since joining the organization.
Shields led the MLB in complete games in 2011 and was arguably Tampa Bay's best starter in a rotation that includes David Price and Jeremy Helickson. With top pitching prospect Matt Moore expected to be a part of the rotation in 2012, retaining Shields would give the Rays four solid starters who can all light up the radar gun.
*Wade Davis (P)
If Shields returns and Moore does in fact start the season with the big league club, the final rotation spot comes down to a competition between Alex Cobb, Wade Davis and prospect Chris Archer who finished 2011 in Durham (AAA). Cobb is likely the leading canditate after a good impression during his rookie season, making Davis expendable with Archer waiting in the wings.
Plenty of teams could use a back of the rotation starter like Davis, making it likely the Rays will at least explore the option of dealing him to another team if they can add another arm in the bullpen or depth at catcher and/or outfield.
Trade Forecast:
Here's betting the Rays hold onto Shields but pull the trigger on deals with Upton and Davis. Tampa Bay liked what they saw out of Desmond Jennings during the second half of last season and already know he can be one of the best defensive center fielders in the league if he is moved there. Additionally, there are several outfield prospects on the horizon who will already be competing with Jennings, Matt Joyce, Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld who have already reached the major league level. The Florida Marlins have been rumored to be in the market for another starter and would love to make a splash by landing a big name like Upton heading into their new ballpark under Ozzie Guillen. If the Rays could find a way to package Upton and Davis in a deal to the Marlins, they could reasonably ask for first baseman Logan Morrison plus prospects--possibly even getting an outfielder like Chris Coughlan in the deal if the Fish bite.
